Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Over |
| Money | TOL +170 AKR -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AKR +9 | 183 | Lost |
| Massey | AKR -5.8 (-3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.6 (+15.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AKR -4.4 (-4.6) | 160.4 (+22.6) | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AKR -4.9 (-4.1) | 158.9 (+24.1) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -3.5 (-5.5) | 159.9 (+23.1) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AKR -4.5 (-4.5) | 160.0 (+23.0) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | AKR 79 – 76 TOL |
| Jan 28, 2026 | AKR 91 – 81 TOL |
| Mar 14, 2025 | AKR 100 – 90 TOL |
| Jan 15, 2025 | AKR 85 – 78 TOL |
| Feb 21, 2024 | TOL 72 – 64 AKR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 28-7 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 17-1 |
| Home | 9-4 | 16-0 |
| Away | 6-9 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.9 | 83.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.1 | 76.4 |
| Massey | -5.1 (#248) | 4.0 (#104) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.03 (#168) | 1.12 (#84) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.44 (#201) | 1.10 (#96) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#127) | 0.593 (#33) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.0% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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