Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Over |
| Money | AKR -340 TOL +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AKR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AKR +7 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | AKR -8.8 (-1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.6 (-3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AKR -7.7 (-0.7) | 155.9 (+7.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AKR -8.1 (-1.1) | 157.1 (+5.9) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -6.2 (+0.8) | 155.2 (+7.8) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AKR -7.3 (-0.3) | 155.1 (+7.9) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | AKR 79 – 76 TOL |
| Jan 28, 2026 | AKR 91 – 81 TOL |
| Mar 14, 2025 | AKR 100 – 90 TOL |
| Mar 5, 2025 | AKR 96 – 87 TOL |
| Feb 21, 2024 | TOL 72 – 64 AKR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AKR | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 10-8 |
| Home | 16-0 | 9-4 |
| Away | 8-4 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.4 | 77.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.4 | 81.1 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#126) | -2.9 (#211) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#141) | 0.33 (#140) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#152) | -0.07 (#172) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#136) | 0.517 (#143) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AKR | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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