Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 168.5 Over |
| Money | AKR -950 TOL +625 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AKR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AKR +10 | 172 | Won |
| Massey | AKR -13.9 (-3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 173.4 (-1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AKR -13.2 (-3.2) | 158.1 (+13.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AKR -14.3 (-4.3) | 158.5 (+13.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -13.6 (-3.6) | 158.9 (+13.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AKR -12.8 (-2.8) | 159.2 (+12.8) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | AKR 79 – 76 TOL |
| Mar 14, 2025 | AKR 100 – 90 TOL |
| Mar 5, 2025 | AKR 96 – 87 TOL |
| Jan 15, 2025 | AKR 85 – 78 TOL |
| Feb 21, 2024 | TOL 72 – 64 AKR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AKR | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 11-7 |
| Home | 15-0 | 11-4 |
| Away | 9-3 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.4 | 79.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 77.4 |
| Massey | 11.2 (#52) | 0.5 (#157) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.81 (#55) | 0.25 (#144) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.12 (#64) | 0.39 (#133) |
| RPI | 0.587 (#46) | 0.537 (#106) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AKR | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.2% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 39.7% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.75 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.9% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 56.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 64.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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