Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | AKR -340 TOL +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AKR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AKR +3 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | AKR -8.1 (-5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.3 (-8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -7.5 (-4.5) | 154.8 (+0.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AKR -7.9 (-4.9) | 154.6 (+0.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AKR -7.0 (-4.0) | 154.4 (+0.6) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AKR -6.7 (-3.7) | 154.3 (+0.7) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | AKR 91 – 81 TOL |
| Mar 14, 2025 | AKR 100 – 90 TOL |
| Mar 5, 2025 | AKR 96 – 87 TOL |
| Jan 15, 2025 | AKR 85 – 78 TOL |
| Feb 21, 2024 | TOL 72 – 64 AKR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AKR | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 11-7 |
| Home | 15-0 | 11-4 |
| Away | 9-3 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.4 | 79.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 77.4 |
| Massey | 10.0 (#59) | 1.9 (#136) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.90 (#49) | 0.28 (#138) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.09 (#62) | 0.41 (#128) |
| RPI | 0.595 (#28) | 0.541 (#84) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AKR | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.9% | 48.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.9% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.61 | 1.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.6% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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