Cause now I wanna be your dog. "I Wanna Be Your Dog" - Iggy and the Stooges
Missouri State Bears
87 80
FINAL Conference
Belmont Bruins
Missouri Valley Conference · Great Southern Bank Arena · February 3, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread MOST -5.5 Home covered
O/U 148.5 Over
Money MOST -250 / BEL +188
Model Predictions
Spread Total MOST win
Actual MOST +7 167 Won
Massey MOST -5.2 (+1.8)
Massey Totals 152.1 (+14.9)
Bradley-Terry 67%
Weighted B-T 65%
Baseline ML MOST -4.4 (+2.6) 150.4 (+16.6) 69%
Baseline Plus ML MOST -4.7 (+2.3) 152.1 (+14.9) 70%
Efficiency Plus ML MOST -3.4 (+3.6) 149.9 (+17.1) 68%
Baseline Tuned ML MOST -4.6 (+2.4) 148.5 (+18.5) 70%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 27, 2025 BEL 7465 MOST
Feb 8, 2025 BEL 8568 MOST
Feb 24, 2024 BEL 9378 MOST
Feb 9, 2023 MOST 6159 BEL
Jan 7, 2023 BEL 7461 MOST

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MOST BEL
Overall 17-16 20-13
Conference 8-12 12-8
Home 9-5 12-2
Away 4-10 6-9
Neutral 4-1 2-2
Last 5 3-2 1-4
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 71.2 77.4
Avg Pts Against 71.3 76.1
Massey 1.6 (#143) -0.1 (#165)
Bradley-Terry 0.60 (#124) 0.55 (#129)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.59 (#140) 0.68 (#127)
RPI 0.526 (#130) 0.531 (#123)
Shooting & Four Factors MOST BEL
FG% 43.4% 46.9%
3PT% 31.8% 36.8%
REB / G 39.0 32.2
OREB / G 10.1 6.8
AST / TO 1.04 1.17
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 49.8% 54.4%
TOV% 17.3% 17.7%
ORB% 28.6% 20.6%
FT Rate 21.9% 22.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 46.7% 54.4%
Opp TOV% 13.8% 17.3%
DRB% 75.0% 72.7%
Opp FT Rate 19.3% 19.7%

Game Analysis

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