Taking a bite on a biscuit, the record jumps on a scratch. "If I Didn't Love You" - Squeeze
Missouri State Bears
65 74
FINAL Conference
Belmont Bruins
Missouri Valley Conference · Great Southern Bank Arena · February 27, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread MOST -0.5 Away covered
O/U 148.5 Under
Money MOST +105 / BEL -125
Model Predictions
Spread Total MOST win
Actual BEL +9 139 Lost
Massey BEL -1.1 (-7.9)
Massey Totals 152.8 (-13.8)
Bradley-Terry 21%
Weighted B-T 29%
Baseline ML BEL -0.6 (-8.4) 147.9 (-8.9) 44%
Baseline Plus ML BEL -0.9 (-8.1) 147.8 (-8.8) 39%
Efficiency Plus ML BEL -0.0 (-9.0) 145.0 (-6.0) 50%
Baseline Tuned ML BEL -0.8 (-8.2) 146.5 (-7.5) 43%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 8, 2025 BEL 8568 MOST
Feb 24, 2024 BEL 9378 MOST
Feb 3, 2024 MOST 8780 BEL
Feb 9, 2023 MOST 6159 BEL
Jan 7, 2023 BEL 7461 MOST

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MOST BEL
Overall 9-23 22-11
Conference 2-18 13-7
Home 7-8 11-5
Away 1-12 9-4
Neutral 1-3 2-2
Last 5 1-4 3-2
Streak L6 L1
Avg Pts For 67.5 78.9
Avg Pts Against 71.9 76.8
Massey -3.4 (#223) 1.0 (#143)
Bradley-Terry -1.09 (#272) 0.81 (#103)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.94 (#242) 0.61 (#124)
RPI 0.439 (#297) 0.541 (#101)
Shooting & Four Factors MOST BEL
FG% 44.8% 46.7%
3PT% 35.7% 38.8%
REB / G 32.7 34.1
OREB / G 10.6 9.8
AST / TO 0.88 1.58
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.4% 55.4%
TOV% 20.6% 15.4%
ORB% 32.3% 27.3%
FT Rate 22.6% 18.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 54.4% 55.1%
Opp TOV% 19.2% 17.4%
DRB% 71.7% 70.0%
Opp FT Rate 28.3% 18.9%

Game Analysis

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