I'm just like a turtle crawling out of my shell. "Boombastic" - Shaggy
Belmont Bruins
74 61
FINAL Conference
Missouri State Bears
Missouri Valley Conference · Curb Event Center Arena · January 7, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread BEL -2.5 Home covered
O/U 135.5 Under
Money BEL -138 / MOST +140
Model Predictions
Spread Total BEL win
Actual BEL +13 135 Won
Massey BEL -0.7 (+12.3)
Massey Totals 138.3 (-3.3)
Bradley-Terry 71%
Weighted B-T 63%
Baseline ML BEL -0.6 (+12.4) 139.1 (-4.1) 55%
Baseline Plus ML MOST -0.1 (+13.1) 137.5 (-2.5) 51%
Efficiency Plus ML BEL -1.1 (+11.9) 135.6 (-0.6) 56%
Baseline Tuned ML BEL -1.0 (+12.0) 138.1 (-3.1) 56%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 27, 2025 BEL 7465 MOST
Feb 8, 2025 BEL 8568 MOST
Feb 24, 2024 BEL 9378 MOST
Feb 3, 2024 MOST 8780 BEL
Feb 9, 2023 MOST 6159 BEL

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings BEL MOST
Overall 21-11 17-15
Conference 14-6 12-8
Home 12-2 10-4
Away 7-7 5-8
Neutral 2-2 2-3
Last 5 4-1 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 76.3 65.0
Avg Pts Against 72.5 63.7
Massey 0.7 (#158) 4.4 (#101)
Bradley-Terry 0.42 (#134) 0.28 (#147)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.15 (#165) 0.53 (#126)
RPI 0.534 (#113) 0.524 (#128)
Shooting & Four Factors BEL MOST
FG% 45.7% 43.7%
3PT% 40.1% 33.3%
REB / G 31.2 34.1
OREB / G 7.9 10.4
AST / TO 1.16 0.99
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 54.3% 51.0%
TOV% 18.6% 18.5%
ORB% 23.9% 30.3%
FT Rate 18.9% 15.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.2% 49.3%
Opp TOV% 20.0% 20.1%
DRB% 67.7% 73.3%
Opp FT Rate 21.2% 20.0%

Game Analysis

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