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Missouri State Bears
61 59
FINAL Conference
Belmont Bruins
Missouri Valley Conference · Great Southern Bank Arena · February 9, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread MOST -1.5 Home covered
O/U 136.5 Under
Money MOST -138 / BEL +110
Model Predictions
Spread Total MOST win
Actual MOST +2 120 Won
Massey MOST -2.8 (-0.8)
Massey Totals 138.2 (-18.2)
Bradley-Terry 52%
Weighted B-T 57%
Baseline ML MOST -1.3 (+0.7) 140.4 (-20.4) 56%
Baseline Plus ML MOST -0.9 (+1.1) 138.3 (-18.3) 56%
Efficiency Plus ML MOST -2.5 (-0.5) 137.1 (-17.1) 65%
Baseline Tuned ML MOST -1.5 (+0.5) 138.9 (-18.9) 60%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 27, 2025 BEL 7465 MOST
Feb 8, 2025 BEL 8568 MOST
Feb 24, 2024 BEL 9378 MOST
Feb 3, 2024 MOST 8780 BEL
Jan 7, 2023 BEL 7461 MOST

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MOST BEL
Overall 17-15 21-11
Conference 12-8 14-6
Home 10-4 12-2
Away 5-8 7-7
Neutral 2-3 2-2
Last 5 2-3 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 65.0 76.3
Avg Pts Against 63.7 72.5
Massey 1.2 (#145) 2.0 (#132)
Bradley-Terry 0.15 (#156) 0.72 (#111)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.09 (#163) 0.57 (#126)
RPI 0.523 (#130) 0.556 (#78)
Shooting & Four Factors MOST BEL
FG% 43.1% 46.5%
3PT% 32.9% 39.4%
REB / G 34.0 32.1
OREB / G 11.0 8.4
AST / TO 0.88 1.24
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.2% 54.9%
TOV% 19.7% 17.8%
ORB% 32.4% 25.7%
FT Rate 17.9% 17.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.8% 51.3%
Opp TOV% 19.6% 18.5%
DRB% 72.2% 69.1%
Opp FT Rate 22.1% 19.3%

Game Analysis

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