Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | INST -210 DRKE +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +8 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | INST -6.3 (+1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.2 (-18.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -4.8 (+3.2) | 155.6 (-13.6) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -5.0 (+3.0) | 152.7 (-10.7) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -5.5 (+2.5) | 155.6 (-13.6) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -5.8 (+2.2) | 155.4 (-13.4) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | DRKE 76 – 62 INST |
| Jan 4, 2026 | DRKE 74 – 72 INST |
| Feb 8, 2025 | DRKE 85 – 81 INST |
| Jan 18, 2025 | DRKE 71 – 53 INST |
| Mar 10, 2024 | DRKE 84 – 80 INST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 28-7 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 16-4 |
| Home | 16-1 | 16-0 |
| Away | 9-4 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.7 | 79.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 13.2 (#26) | 10.3 (#49) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.60 (#13) | 1.90 (#44) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.94 (#21) | 2.35 (#43) |
| RPI | 0.608 (#27) | 0.608 (#26) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.8% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 40.7% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 61.1% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 77.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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