Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | INST -163 DRKE +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DRKE +4 | 164 | Lost |
| Massey | INST -2.1 (-6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.5 (+3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -3.0 (-7.0) | 154.5 (+9.5) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -3.3 (-7.3) | 155.9 (+8.1) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | INST -2.9 (-6.9) | 155.5 (+8.5) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -2.8 (-6.8) | 155.8 (+8.2) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | DRKE 76 – 62 INST |
| Jan 4, 2026 | DRKE 74 – 72 INST |
| Feb 8, 2025 | DRKE 85 – 81 INST |
| Jan 18, 2025 | DRKE 71 – 53 INST |
| Feb 3, 2024 | INST 75 – 67 DRKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 28-7 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 16-4 |
| Home | 16-1 | 16-0 |
| Away | 9-4 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.7 | 79.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 12.7 (#35) | 10.5 (#48) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.31 (#24) | 2.11 (#30) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.61 (#29) | 2.45 (#37) |
| RPI | 0.587 (#39) | 0.616 (#12) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.3% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.6% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 1.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.9% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 23.5% | 24.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 76.6% | 77.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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