Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | INST -170 DRKE +142 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DRKE +14 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | INST -0.4 (-14.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.6 (-15.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -0.6 (-14.6) | 150.1 (-12.1) | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DRKE -0.4 (-13.6) | 150.5 (-12.5) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -1.2 (-15.2) | 148.4 (-10.4) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | INST -0.7 (-14.7) | 149.0 (-11.0) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 4, 2026 | DRKE 74 – 72 INST |
| Feb 8, 2025 | DRKE 85 – 81 INST |
| Jan 18, 2025 | DRKE 71 – 53 INST |
| Mar 10, 2024 | DRKE 84 – 80 INST |
| Feb 3, 2024 | INST 75 – 67 DRKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 14-20 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 6-14 |
| Home | 8-7 | 6-11 |
| Away | 3-12 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 76.3 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#196) | 0.9 (#152) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.63 (#224) | -0.32 (#206) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.00 (#235) | -0.21 (#183) |
| RPI | 0.470 (#230) | 0.484 (#209) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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