Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | MSU -250 MD +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +9 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -9.9 (-0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.5 (-9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -8.2 (+0.8) | 132.9 (-15.9) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -7.6 (+1.4) | 130.8 (-13.8) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -7.6 (+1.4) | 131.3 (-14.3) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -8.0 (+1.0) | 132.3 (-15.3) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | MSU 91 – 48 MD |
| Feb 26, 2025 | MSU 58 – 55 MD |
| Jan 21, 2024 | MSU 61 – 59 MD |
| Feb 8, 2023 | MSU 63 – 58 MD |
| Mar 10, 2022 | MSU 76 – 72 MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-15 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 7-13 |
| Home | 14-4 | 11-6 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 65.9 |
| Massey | 15.4 (#17) | 9.1 (#65) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.74 (#52) | 1.22 (#86) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.43 (#41) | 1.86 (#72) |
| RPI | 0.575 (#63) | 0.535 (#114) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.76 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 29.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 45.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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