Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | MD -115 MSU -111 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +2 | 120 | Lost |
| Massey | MSU -4.4 (+2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.1 (-9.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -1.4 (-0.6) | 131.9 (-11.9) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -3.1 (+1.1) | 131.0 (-11.0) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -3.1 (+1.1) | 132.4 (-12.4) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -2.9 (+0.9) | 133.1 (-13.1) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | MSU 91 – 48 MD |
| Feb 26, 2025 | MSU 58 – 55 MD |
| Feb 3, 2024 | MSU 63 – 54 MD |
| Feb 8, 2023 | MSU 63 – 58 MD |
| Mar 10, 2022 | MSU 76 – 72 MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 20-15 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 10-10 |
| Home | 11-6 | 14-4 |
| Away | 4-8 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.9 | 66.1 |
| Massey | 7.3 (#80) | 15.4 (#16) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.85 (#105) | 1.51 (#70) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.39 (#92) | 2.31 (#49) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#133) | 0.569 (#72) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 27.9% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 31.2% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.