Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +4 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -3.9 (+0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.6 (+8.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -2.6 (+1.4) | 139.1 (+8.9) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -2.6 (+1.4) | 138.2 (+9.8) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -3.2 (+0.8) | 141.5 (+6.5) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -3.1 (+0.9) | 141.5 (+6.5) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | MSU 91 – 48 MD |
| Feb 26, 2025 | MSU 58 – 55 MD |
| Feb 3, 2024 | MSU 63 – 54 MD |
| Jan 21, 2024 | MSU 61 – 59 MD |
| Feb 8, 2023 | MSU 63 – 58 MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 7-13 |
| Home | 12-3 | 10-8 |
| Away | 5-6 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 11.1 (#35) | 7.2 (#83) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.29 (#32) | 1.17 (#87) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.79 (#29) | 1.61 (#81) |
| RPI | 0.591 (#31) | 0.527 (#125) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.4% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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