Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | MD -185 MSU +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +3 | 113 | Lost |
| Massey | MD -4.9 (-7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.9 (-35.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -5.2 (-8.2) | 149.3 (-36.3) | 71% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -3.9 (-6.9) | 147.5 (-34.5) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -5.4 (-8.4) | 148.8 (-35.8) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MD -5.6 (-8.6) | 150.7 (-37.7) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | MSU 91 – 48 MD |
| Feb 3, 2024 | MSU 63 – 54 MD |
| Jan 21, 2024 | MSU 61 – 59 MD |
| Feb 8, 2023 | MSU 63 – 58 MD |
| Mar 10, 2022 | MSU 76 – 72 MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 30-7 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 17-3 |
| Home | 17-2 | 15-1 |
| Away | 5-5 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 7-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.1 | 77.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 67.1 |
| Massey | 20.0 (#8) | 18.3 (#13) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.68 (#25) | 3.18 (#9) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.70 (#17) | 4.14 (#9) |
| RPI | 0.596 (#30) | 0.628 (#11) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.8% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 39.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 36.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 30.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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