Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | MSU -200 MD +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +5 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -0.7 (+4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.9 (-7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -0.9 (+4.1) | 131.1 (-10.1) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -1.4 (+3.6) | 129.1 (-8.1) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -1.7 (+3.3) | 130.5 (-9.5) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -1.2 (+3.8) | 131.6 (-10.6) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | MSU 91 – 48 MD |
| Feb 26, 2025 | MSU 58 – 55 MD |
| Feb 3, 2024 | MSU 63 – 54 MD |
| Jan 21, 2024 | MSU 61 – 59 MD |
| Mar 10, 2022 | MSU 76 – 72 MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 11-8 | 11-9 |
| Home | 12-2 | 16-1 |
| Away | 4-7 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 63.5 |
| Massey | 9.7 (#50) | 12.5 (#26) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.96 (#40) | 2.06 (#33) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.40 (#44) | 2.56 (#35) |
| RPI | 0.584 (#43) | 0.594 (#32) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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