Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | MSU -2800 MD +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +43 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -22.0 (+21.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.7 (-0.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -18.7 (+24.3) | 137.2 (+1.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -16.0 (+27.0) | 136.5 (+2.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -17.6 (+25.4) | 134.5 (+4.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -18.6 (+24.4) | 134.5 (+4.5) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2025 | MSU 58 – 55 MD |
| Feb 3, 2024 | MSU 63 – 54 MD |
| Jan 21, 2024 | MSU 61 – 59 MD |
| Feb 8, 2023 | MSU 63 – 58 MD |
| Mar 10, 2022 | MSU 76 – 72 MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 4-16 |
| Home | 15-2 | 7-8 |
| Away | 6-4 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 76.6 |
| Massey | 20.6 (#11) | 1.8 (#141) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.17 (#7) | 0.26 (#142) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.68 (#6) | 0.37 (#138) |
| RPI | 0.663 (#8) | 0.505 (#163) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 41.6 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 39.3% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 30.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 78.5% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.