Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | SDSU -250 USU +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +14 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | SDSU -3.2 (+10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.0 (-1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -4.4 (+9.6) | 144.9 (+3.1) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -3.2 (+10.8) | 146.8 (+1.2) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -2.8 (+11.2) | 147.1 (+0.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -3.8 (+10.2) | 148.1 (-0.1) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | USU 73 – 62 SDSU |
| Feb 26, 2026 | SDSU 89 – 72 USU |
| Jan 31, 2026 | USU 71 – 66 SDSU |
| Feb 23, 2025 | USU 79 – 71 SDSU |
| Dec 28, 2024 | USU 67 – 66 SDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-11 | 28-7 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 14-4 |
| Home | 14-1 | 14-1 |
| Away | 6-8 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 78.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 13.0 (#29) | 13.3 (#24) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.48 (#16) | 3.15 (#4) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.01 (#17) | 3.37 (#9) |
| RPI | 0.654 (#5) | 0.656 (#4) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 49.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 28.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 76.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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