Betting Lines
| Spread | NICH -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | NICH -450 HCU +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NICH +10 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | NICH -13.7 (-3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.4 (+2.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NICH -10.6 (-0.6) | 152.1 (+3.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NICH -10.5 (-0.5) | 149.7 (+6.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NICH -10.5 (-0.5) | 150.0 (+6.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NICH -11.0 (-1.0) | 151.8 (+4.2) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | HCU 72 – 68 NICH |
| Dec 18, 2025 | NICH 79 – 64 HCU |
| Feb 4, 2025 | NICH 75 – 67 HCU |
| Jan 6, 2024 | NICH 98 – 94 HCU |
| Feb 25, 2023 | NICH 68 – 64 HCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NICH | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 6-23 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 4-14 |
| Home | 10-2 | 5-8 |
| Away | 8-10 | 1-15 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 84.8 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#245) | -14.3 (#345) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.50 (#226) | -2.46 (#346) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#250) | -3.32 (#350) |
| RPI | 0.482 (#207) | 0.376 (#352) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NICH | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 27.8% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 14.0% |
| DRB% | 65.1% | 66.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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