Betting Lines
| Spread | NICH -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | HCU +240 NICH -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NICH +4 | 192 | Lost |
| Massey | NICH -7.9 (+3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.3 (+41.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NICH -8.9 (+4.9) | 149.3 (+42.7) | 19% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NICH -8.1 (+4.1) | 146.9 (+45.1) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NICH -8.3 (+4.3) | 141.5 (+50.5) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NICH -9.7 (+5.7) | 149.0 (+43.0) | 19% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | HCU 72 – 68 NICH |
| Dec 18, 2025 | NICH 79 – 64 HCU |
| Feb 4, 2025 | NICH 75 – 67 HCU |
| Feb 3, 2024 | NICH 83 – 73 HCU |
| Feb 25, 2023 | NICH 68 – 64 HCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HCU | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-23 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 13-5 |
| Home | 5-8 | 10-2 |
| Away | 1-15 | 8-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L7 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 84.8 | 74.9 |
| Massey | -14.0 (#351) | -1.8 (#196) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.96 (#361) | -0.49 (#225) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.03 (#360) | -0.89 (#240) |
| RPI | 0.417 (#309) | 0.499 (#171) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HCU | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.1% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 21.7% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.56 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.9% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 22.7% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 24.9% |
| FT Rate | 17.8% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.4% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 65.1% | 62.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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