Betting Lines
| Spread | NICH -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | NICH -340 HCU +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NICH +8 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | NICH -7.7 (+0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.8 (+0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NICH -5.3 (+2.7) | 139.1 (+2.9) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NICH -6.3 (+1.7) | 139.8 (+2.2) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NICH -5.7 (+2.3) | 138.8 (+3.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NICH -5.2 (+2.8) | 138.2 (+3.8) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | HCU 72 – 68 NICH |
| Dec 18, 2025 | NICH 79 – 64 HCU |
| Feb 3, 2024 | NICH 83 – 73 HCU |
| Jan 6, 2024 | NICH 98 – 94 HCU |
| Feb 25, 2023 | NICH 68 – 64 HCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NICH | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 9-11 |
| Home | 11-4 | 8-7 |
| Away | 8-8 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 64.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 69.9 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#181) | -5.6 (#255) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.05 (#180) | -0.99 (#259) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.13 (#181) | -0.97 (#233) |
| RPI | 0.504 (#170) | 0.465 (#241) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NICH | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.2% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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