Betting Lines
| Spread | NICH -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | NICH -185 HCU +154 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NICH +15 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | NICH -4.3 (+10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.1 (-0.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NICH -1.9 (+13.1) | 139.2 (+3.8) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NICH -3.7 (+11.3) | 138.1 (+4.9) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NICH -1.2 (+13.8) | 141.0 (+2.0) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NICH -1.1 (+13.9) | 142.5 (+0.5) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | HCU 72 – 68 NICH |
| Feb 4, 2025 | NICH 75 – 67 HCU |
| Feb 3, 2024 | NICH 83 – 73 HCU |
| Jan 6, 2024 | NICH 98 – 94 HCU |
| Feb 25, 2023 | NICH 68 – 64 HCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NICH | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 12-10 | 8-14 |
| Home | 6-6 | 9-5 |
| Away | 7-12 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 66.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.7 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -4.9 (#247) | -4.9 (#246) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.05 (#320) | -1.63 (#295) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.68 (#315) | -2.03 (#281) |
| RPI | 0.400 (#321) | 0.413 (#310) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NICH | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 30.6 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.8% | 57.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.7% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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