Betting Lines
| Spread | HCU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | HCU -122 NICH +102 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HCU +4 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | HCU -0.7 (+3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.4 (-5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NICH -0.2 (+4.2) | 137.6 (+2.4) | 49% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NICH -0.4 (+4.4) | 138.0 (+2.0) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HCU -0.3 (+3.7) | 137.6 (+2.4) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HCU -0.1 (+3.9) | 138.4 (+1.6) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 18, 2025 | NICH 79 – 64 HCU |
| Feb 4, 2025 | NICH 75 – 67 HCU |
| Feb 3, 2024 | NICH 83 – 73 HCU |
| Jan 6, 2024 | NICH 98 – 94 HCU |
| Feb 25, 2023 | NICH 68 – 64 HCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HCU | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 8-14 | 12-10 |
| Home | 9-5 | 6-6 |
| Away | 3-14 | 7-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.3 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 75.7 |
| Massey | -7.4 (#284) | -5.2 (#250) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.64 (#311) | -0.78 (#238) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.06 (#305) | -1.13 (#246) |
| RPI | 0.417 (#329) | 0.481 (#223) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HCU | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 30.9 | 29.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.6% | 55.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 64.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 30.9% |
Game Analysis
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