Betting Lines
| Spread | LSU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | LSU -225 ARK +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LSU +21 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | LSU -6.5 (+14.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.7 (+15.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LSU -5.3 (+15.7) | 149.7 (+19.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LSU -5.2 (+15.8) | 152.4 (+16.6) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LSU -4.9 (+16.1) | 153.9 (+15.1) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LSU -5.1 (+15.9) | 150.8 (+18.2) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | ARK 91 – 62 LSU |
| Jan 24, 2026 | ARK 85 – 81 LSU |
| Feb 13, 2025 | ARK 70 – 58 LSU |
| Jan 15, 2025 | LSU 78 – 74 ARK |
| Mar 7, 2024 | ARK 94 – 83 LSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LSU | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 6-12 |
| Home | 12-6 | 11-6 |
| Away | 3-7 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.4 | 77.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 79.8 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#88) | 3.5 (#118) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.97 (#101) | 1.14 (#91) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.55 (#88) | 1.32 (#93) |
| RPI | 0.527 (#129) | 0.554 (#93) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LSU | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 32.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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