Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Over |
| Money | ARK -625 LSU +455 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +4 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -9.3 (-5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.7 (-1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -9.2 (-5.2) | 158.6 (+7.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -9.1 (-5.1) | 161.6 (+4.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -10.5 (-6.5) | 161.2 (+4.8) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -9.3 (-5.3) | 158.6 (+7.4) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | ARK 91 – 62 LSU |
| Feb 13, 2025 | ARK 70 – 58 LSU |
| Jan 15, 2025 | LSU 78 – 74 ARK |
| Mar 7, 2024 | ARK 94 – 83 LSU |
| Feb 3, 2024 | LSU 95 – 74 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 3-15 |
| Home | 17-1 | 9-8 |
| Away | 5-5 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 90.2 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.0 | 78.5 |
| Massey | 19.0 (#18) | 12.9 (#42) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.10 (#21) | 1.72 (#57) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.24 (#19) | 2.66 (#49) |
| RPI | 0.636 (#19) | 0.558 (#77) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 49.1% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.78 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.3% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 29.4% | 32.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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