Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | ARK -550 LSU +380 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +12 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -7.9 (+4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.5 (-18.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -7.5 (+4.5) | 144.8 (-16.8) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -6.2 (+5.8) | 148.9 (-20.9) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -7.8 (+4.2) | 145.4 (-17.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -7.3 (+4.7) | 146.3 (-18.3) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | ARK 91 – 62 LSU |
| Jan 24, 2026 | ARK 85 – 81 LSU |
| Jan 15, 2025 | LSU 78 – 74 ARK |
| Mar 7, 2024 | ARK 94 – 83 LSU |
| Feb 3, 2024 | LSU 95 – 74 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 3-15 |
| Home | 13-4 | 11-7 |
| Away | 4-6 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 73.6 |
| Massey | 13.7 (#36) | 9.0 (#66) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.17 (#44) | 1.42 (#69) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.93 (#40) | 1.78 (#72) |
| RPI | 0.555 (#74) | 0.519 (#142) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 66.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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