Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | LSU +170 ARK -205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +29 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | ARK -4.0 (-25.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.0 (-14.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -2.6 (-26.4) | 160.9 (-7.9) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -2.9 (-26.1) | 159.6 (-6.6) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -2.9 (-26.1) | 160.7 (-7.7) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -3.8 (-25.2) | 160.6 (-7.6) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | ARK 85 – 81 LSU |
| Feb 13, 2025 | ARK 70 – 58 LSU |
| Jan 15, 2025 | LSU 78 – 74 ARK |
| Mar 7, 2024 | ARK 94 – 83 LSU |
| Feb 3, 2024 | LSU 95 – 74 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LSU | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 13-5 |
| Home | 9-8 | 17-1 |
| Away | 3-7 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 90.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.5 | 81.0 |
| Massey | 11.7 (#47) | 18.7 (#20) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.36 (#73) | 3.04 (#22) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.99 (#66) | 3.99 (#22) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#89) | 0.628 (#21) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LSU | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 49.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 56.6% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 12.8% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 32.7% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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