Betting Lines
| Spread | LSU -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | LSU -110 ARK -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LSU +4 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -0.0 (+4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.4 (+4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LSU -1.3 (+2.7) | 147.5 (+4.5) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LSU -1.9 (+2.1) | 147.9 (+4.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LSU -2.2 (+1.8) | 144.9 (+7.1) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LSU -1.5 (+2.5) | 146.0 (+6.0) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | ARK 91 – 62 LSU |
| Jan 24, 2026 | ARK 85 – 81 LSU |
| Feb 13, 2025 | ARK 70 – 58 LSU |
| Mar 7, 2024 | ARK 94 – 83 LSU |
| Feb 3, 2024 | LSU 95 – 74 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LSU | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 22-14 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 8-10 |
| Home | 11-7 | 13-4 |
| Away | 2-8 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 71.4 |
| Massey | 9.5 (#63) | 13.3 (#37) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.58 (#60) | 1.94 (#52) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.07 (#61) | 2.63 (#47) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#120) | 0.549 (#84) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LSU | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 48.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 39.4 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 54.8% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.7% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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