Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | ARK -200 LSU +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +11 | 177 | Won |
| Massey | LSU -0.2 (+11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.7 (+20.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -1.0 (+10.0) | 154.2 (+22.8) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -0.6 (+10.4) | 156.4 (+20.6) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -0.1 (+10.9) | 154.8 (+22.2) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -0.7 (+10.3) | 155.7 (+21.3) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | ARK 91 – 62 LSU |
| Jan 24, 2026 | ARK 85 – 81 LSU |
| Feb 13, 2025 | ARK 70 – 58 LSU |
| Jan 15, 2025 | LSU 78 – 74 ARK |
| Feb 3, 2024 | LSU 95 – 74 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-6 | 12-6 |
| Away | 2-7 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 76.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.8 | 75.0 |
| Massey | 3.5 (#119) | 6.9 (#83) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.94 (#104) | 1.28 (#81) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.13 (#104) | 1.51 (#86) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#114) | 0.543 (#106) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 34.0% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.2% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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