Betting Lines
| Spread | MASS -5.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | MASS -225 GMU +185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MASS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MASS +1 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | MASS -5.3 (-4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.3 (-16.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MASS -3.2 (-2.2) | 141.5 (-10.5) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MASS -4.6 (-3.6) | 146.0 (-15.0) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MASS -4.4 (-3.4) | 147.2 (-16.2) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MASS -4.5 (-3.5) | 146.3 (-15.3) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 11, 2025 | GMU 77 – 70 MASS |
| Feb 2, 2023 | GMU 70 – 59 MASS |
| Mar 5, 2022 | MASS 83 – 80 GMU |
| Jan 30, 2022 | GMU 72 – 62 MASS |
| Dec 30, 2020 | GMU 93 – 92 MASS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MASS | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-11 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 13-3 | 14-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.5 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 66.1 |
| Massey | 7.4 (#79) | 5.6 (#96) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#116) | 1.37 (#75) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.24 (#98) | 1.62 (#84) |
| RPI | 0.555 (#91) | 0.575 (#64) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MASS | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 36.9% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.9% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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