Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MASS +3 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | GMU -9.0 (-12.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.3 (+8.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -6.4 (-9.4) | 149.1 (+13.9) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -7.5 (-10.5) | 149.8 (+13.2) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -7.3 (-10.3) | 151.3 (+11.7) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -7.3 (-10.3) | 152.2 (+10.8) | 76% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 11, 2025 | GMU 77 – 70 MASS |
| Feb 3, 2024 | MASS 66 – 65 GMU |
| Feb 2, 2023 | GMU 70 – 59 MASS |
| Jan 30, 2022 | GMU 72 – 62 MASS |
| Dec 30, 2020 | GMU 93 – 92 MASS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | MASS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-4 | 10-5 |
| Away | 4-8 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 78.1 |
| Massey | 4.5 (#107) | -1.7 (#200) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#136) | -0.12 (#186) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.57 (#132) | -0.20 (#189) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#134) | 0.494 (#191) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | MASS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 55.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 77.2% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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