Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | GMU -275 MASS +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +11 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -4.4 (+6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.8 (-12.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -2.7 (+8.3) | 142.0 (-13.0) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -2.9 (+8.1) | 144.2 (-15.2) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -2.4 (+8.6) | 145.0 (-16.0) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -3.2 (+7.8) | 144.0 (-15.0) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 11, 2025 | GMU 77 – 70 MASS |
| Feb 3, 2024 | MASS 66 – 65 GMU |
| Mar 5, 2022 | MASS 83 – 80 GMU |
| Jan 30, 2022 | GMU 72 – 62 MASS |
| Dec 30, 2020 | GMU 93 – 92 MASS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | MASS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 6-12 |
| Home | 14-2 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.7 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 71.4 |
| Massey | 1.8 (#133) | 0.9 (#152) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.24 (#149) | 0.59 (#122) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.37 (#138) | 0.69 (#125) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#127) | 0.541 (#101) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | MASS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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