Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | GMU -800 MASS +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +7 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -15.6 (-8.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.3 (+4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -11.9 (-4.9) | 140.3 (+6.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -12.6 (-5.6) | 136.7 (+10.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -13.0 (-6.0) | 138.3 (+8.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -13.1 (-6.1) | 138.7 (+8.3) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 3, 2024 | MASS 66 – 65 GMU |
| Feb 2, 2023 | GMU 70 – 59 MASS |
| Mar 5, 2022 | MASS 83 – 80 GMU |
| Jan 30, 2022 | GMU 72 – 62 MASS |
| Dec 30, 2020 | GMU 93 – 92 MASS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | MASS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 7-11 |
| Home | 18-2 | 8-8 |
| Away | 7-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.0 | 75.7 |
| Massey | 7.1 (#77) | -4.5 (#243) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.56 (#121) | -0.96 (#259) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.65 (#74) | -1.23 (#259) |
| RPI | 0.534 (#108) | 0.455 (#253) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | MASS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 25.8% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 45.5% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 32.5% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.8% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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