Betting Lines
| Spread | MASS -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.0 Over |
| Money | MASS -240 GMU +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MASS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +1 | 185 | Lost |
| Massey | MASS -14.7 (-15.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.6 (+27.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MASS -8.4 (-9.4) | 146.2 (+38.8) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MASS -10.6 (-11.6) | 151.4 (+33.6) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MASS -10.9 (-11.9) | 152.6 (+32.4) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MASS -11.0 (-12.0) | 153.5 (+31.5) | 79% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 11, 2025 | GMU 77 – 70 MASS |
| Feb 3, 2024 | MASS 66 – 65 GMU |
| Feb 2, 2023 | GMU 70 – 59 MASS |
| Mar 5, 2022 | MASS 83 – 80 GMU |
| Jan 30, 2022 | GMU 72 – 62 MASS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MASS | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-7 | 13-9 |
| Conference | 6-4 | 8-6 |
| Home | 4-3 | 7-3 |
| Away | 3-3 | 3-4 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.7 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 6.6 (#79) | -4.0 (#229) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.24 (#145) | -0.44 (#203) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.26 (#105) | -1.32 (#234) |
| RPI | 0.455 (#216) | 0.486 (#173) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MASS | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 28.6% | 17.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.2% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.6% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 78.8% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.9% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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