Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MASS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +10 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | GMU -2.4 (-7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.1 (-19.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -1.7 (-8.3) | 146.6 (-12.6) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -1.8 (-8.2) | 148.8 (-14.8) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -2.3 (-7.7) | 149.6 (-15.6) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -1.9 (-8.1) | 148.7 (-14.7) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 11, 2025 | GMU 77 – 70 MASS |
| Feb 3, 2024 | MASS 66 – 65 GMU |
| Feb 2, 2023 | GMU 70 – 59 MASS |
| Mar 5, 2022 | MASS 83 – 80 GMU |
| Dec 30, 2020 | GMU 93 – 92 MASS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MASS | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-9 |
| Home | 10-5 | 10-4 |
| Away | 3-8 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.1 | 68.5 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#189) | 4.8 (#104) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.00 (#178) | 0.60 (#127) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#177) | 0.80 (#121) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#169) | 0.530 (#124) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MASS | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 40.0% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.9% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 77.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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