Betting Lines
| Spread | PITT -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Over |
| Money | PITT -600 ND +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PITT +10 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | PITT -13.7 (-3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.7 (+5.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PITT -12.6 (-2.6) | 130.5 (-0.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PITT -10.8 (-0.8) | 131.9 (-1.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PITT -10.9 (-0.9) | 130.9 (-0.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PITT -11.9 (-1.9) | 130.2 (-0.2) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | PITT 73 – 68 ND |
| Mar 11, 2025 | ND 55 – 54 PITT |
| Feb 22, 2025 | ND 76 – 72 PITT |
| Mar 2, 2023 | ND 88 – 81 PITT |
| Mar 5, 2022 | ND 78 – 54 PITT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 7-13 |
| Home | 13-5 | 9-8 |
| Away | 7-4 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 64.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 10.3 (#48) | 0.2 (#160) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.19 (#89) | -0.44 (#217) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.51 (#89) | -0.39 (#205) |
| RPI | 0.534 (#116) | 0.477 (#212) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 40.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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