Betting Lines
| Spread | PITT -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | ND +145 PITT -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +7 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | PITT -5.3 (+12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.4 (+28.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PITT -4.0 (+11.0) | 140.6 (+28.4) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PITT -5.6 (+12.6) | 142.3 (+26.7) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PITT -4.9 (+11.9) | 142.3 (+26.7) | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PITT -5.2 (+12.2) | 142.7 (+26.3) | 28% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | PITT 73 – 68 ND |
| Mar 11, 2025 | ND 55 – 54 PITT |
| Feb 22, 2025 | ND 76 – 72 PITT |
| Feb 3, 2024 | PITT 70 – 60 ND |
| Mar 5, 2022 | ND 78 – 54 PITT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 14-6 |
| Home | 11-8 | 14-3 |
| Away | 0-10 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 69.7 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#171) | 8.7 (#65) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.44 (#218) | 1.90 (#44) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.37 (#202) | 2.28 (#47) |
| RPI | 0.462 (#259) | 0.583 (#42) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.7 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 19.9% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 16.8% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.8% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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