Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +24 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | ND -12.8 (+11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.9 (+3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ND -11.5 (+12.5) | 132.3 (-0.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -12.4 (+11.6) | 137.8 (-5.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ND -13.2 (+10.8) | 138.8 (-6.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -13.0 (+11.0) | 134.8 (-2.8) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | PITT 73 – 68 ND |
| Mar 11, 2025 | ND 55 – 54 PITT |
| Feb 22, 2025 | ND 76 – 72 PITT |
| Feb 3, 2024 | PITT 70 – 60 ND |
| Mar 2, 2023 | ND 88 – 81 PITT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 6-14 |
| Home | 14-1 | 9-11 |
| Away | 7-5 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 2-5 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 61.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 68.1 |
| Massey | 9.0 (#60) | -0.9 (#185) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.82 (#48) | 0.07 (#167) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.15 (#52) | 0.09 (#170) |
| RPI | 0.586 (#43) | 0.486 (#208) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 22.3% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 28.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 75.7% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.6% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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