Betting Lines
| Spread | PITT -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | PITT -155 ND +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PITT +5 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | PITT -0.4 (+4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.7 (+0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PITT -0.4 (+4.6) | 138.0 (+3.0) | 50% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PITT -1.4 (+3.6) | 135.7 (+5.3) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PITT -0.5 (+4.5) | 136.6 (+4.4) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PITT -0.2 (+4.8) | 136.9 (+4.1) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2025 | ND 55 – 54 PITT |
| Feb 22, 2025 | ND 76 – 72 PITT |
| Feb 3, 2024 | PITT 70 – 60 ND |
| Mar 2, 2023 | ND 88 – 81 PITT |
| Mar 5, 2022 | ND 78 – 54 PITT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 4-14 |
| Home | 8-10 | 10-7 |
| Away | 3-8 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 75.3 |
| Massey | 5.1 (#101) | 7.6 (#82) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.18 (#149) | 1.05 (#89) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#138) | 1.43 (#86) |
| RPI | 0.497 (#192) | 0.533 (#106) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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