Betting Lines
| Spread | PITT -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | ND +125 PITT -145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +4 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | PITT -4.1 (+8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.8 (+2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PITT -3.2 (+7.2) | 143.4 (+4.6) | 36% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PITT -2.8 (+6.8) | 140.7 (+7.3) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PITT -2.5 (+6.5) | 143.9 (+4.1) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PITT -2.7 (+6.7) | 143.9 (+4.1) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | PITT 73 – 68 ND |
| Mar 11, 2025 | ND 55 – 54 PITT |
| Feb 3, 2024 | PITT 70 – 60 ND |
| Mar 2, 2023 | ND 88 – 81 PITT |
| Mar 5, 2022 | ND 78 – 54 PITT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 8-12 |
| Home | 11-5 | 13-4 |
| Away | 3-9 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 5.1 (#97) | 12.3 (#46) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.03 (#163) | 1.76 (#57) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#137) | 2.12 (#59) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#196) | 0.574 (#52) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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