Betting Lines
| Spread | PITT -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | ND +165 PITT -195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +1 | 109 | Won |
| Massey | PITT -5.8 (+6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.7 (-36.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PITT -4.8 (+5.8) | 143.2 (-34.2) | 33% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PITT -4.7 (+5.7) | 140.3 (-31.3) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PITT -4.8 (+5.8) | 143.2 (-34.2) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PITT -4.8 (+5.8) | 145.1 (-36.1) | 33% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | PITT 73 – 68 ND |
| Feb 22, 2025 | ND 76 – 72 PITT |
| Feb 3, 2024 | PITT 70 – 60 ND |
| Mar 2, 2023 | ND 88 – 81 PITT |
| Mar 5, 2022 | ND 78 – 54 PITT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 8-12 |
| Home | 11-5 | 13-4 |
| Away | 3-9 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 5.3 (#94) | 11.2 (#55) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#134) | 1.26 (#76) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.72 (#118) | 1.60 (#77) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#175) | 0.535 (#109) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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