Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | NEV -1000 SJSU +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +30 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | NEV -14.5 (+15.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.3 (+7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -13.5 (+16.5) | 143.8 (+6.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -11.6 (+18.4) | 142.0 (+8.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -12.7 (+17.3) | 142.9 (+7.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -13.1 (+16.9) | 143.0 (+7.0) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | SJSU 87 – 71 NEV |
| Jan 21, 2026 | NEV 87 – 54 SJSU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | NEV 73 – 58 SJSU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | NEV 75 – 64 SJSU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | NEV 84 – 63 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEV | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 2-16 |
| Home | 15-2 | 6-9 |
| Away | 8-3 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 68.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 9.4 (#59) | -1.6 (#192) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.98 (#39) | -0.53 (#231) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.30 (#44) | -0.57 (#223) |
| RPI | 0.593 (#41) | 0.467 (#239) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEV | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 32.0% | 16.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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