Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | SJSU +500 NEV -700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJSU +16 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | NEV -11.1 (+27.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.5 (+12.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -11.0 (+27.0) | 140.7 (+17.3) | 19% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -10.0 (+26.0) | 141.5 (+16.5) | 17% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -11.6 (+27.6) | 143.1 (+14.9) | 19% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -11.3 (+27.3) | 141.3 (+16.7) | 19% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2026 | NEV 87 – 54 SJSU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | NEV 73 – 58 SJSU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | NEV 75 – 64 SJSU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | NEV 84 – 63 SJSU |
| Feb 3, 2024 | NEV 90 – 60 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJSU | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-24 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 12-8 |
| Home | 6-10 | 17-2 |
| Away | 1-12 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.2 | 71.5 |
| Massey | -4.9 (#244) | 9.1 (#65) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.17 (#275) | 1.56 (#64) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.20 (#251) | 2.00 (#65) |
| RPI | 0.439 (#298) | 0.580 (#49) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJSU | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 28.8 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 33.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.2% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 63.3% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 28.4% |
Game Analysis
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