Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | SJSU +290 NEV -380 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +15 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | NEV -4.2 (-10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.1 (-10.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -3.6 (-11.4) | 138.6 (-7.6) | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -4.4 (-10.6) | 135.5 (-4.5) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -3.1 (-11.9) | 138.4 (-7.4) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -3.3 (-11.7) | 139.7 (-8.7) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | SJSU 87 – 71 NEV |
| Jan 21, 2026 | NEV 87 – 54 SJSU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | NEV 75 – 64 SJSU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | NEV 84 – 63 SJSU |
| Feb 3, 2024 | NEV 90 – 60 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJSU | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-20 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 8-12 |
| Home | 7-9 | 11-6 |
| Away | 3-9 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 68.1 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#154) | 7.9 (#75) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.07 (#173) | 0.90 (#99) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#181) | 1.39 (#82) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#213) | 0.532 (#117) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJSU | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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