Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | NEV -2100 SJSU +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +33 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | NEV -15.4 (+17.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.8 (-4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -12.5 (+20.5) | 139.1 (+1.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -13.5 (+19.5) | 136.7 (+4.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -12.3 (+20.7) | 140.7 (+0.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -13.3 (+19.7) | 141.4 (-0.4) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | SJSU 87 – 71 NEV |
| Feb 15, 2025 | NEV 73 – 58 SJSU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | NEV 75 – 64 SJSU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | NEV 84 – 63 SJSU |
| Feb 3, 2024 | NEV 90 – 60 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEV | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 9-24 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 3-17 |
| Home | 17-2 | 6-10 |
| Away | 4-9 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 79.2 |
| Massey | 7.9 (#83) | -4.2 (#235) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.63 (#57) | -0.89 (#250) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.12 (#68) | -1.05 (#241) |
| RPI | 0.596 (#39) | 0.464 (#238) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEV | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 29.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.51 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 34.9% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 57.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 63.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.0% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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