Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Under |
| Money | UNT -275 USF +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +5 | 115 | Lost |
| Massey | UNT -6.9 (-11.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.4 (-13.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -7.4 (-12.4) | 124.2 (-9.2) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -4.5 (-9.5) | 130.5 (-15.5) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -4.3 (-9.3) | 130.2 (-15.2) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -3.7 (-8.7) | 127.2 (-12.2) | 58% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2026 | USF 74 – 70 UNT |
| Feb 23, 2025 | UNT 64 – 57 USF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNT | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 16-2 |
| Home | 11-4 | 15-3 |
| Away | 6-6 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 2-5 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.4 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 7.3 (#80) | 3.9 (#115) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.70 (#122) | 1.09 (#94) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.26 (#95) | 1.04 (#110) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#125) | 0.554 (#94) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNT | USF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 36.7% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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