Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | UNT +180 USF -218 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +4 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | USF -4.6 (+0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.0 (-4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -2.6 (-1.4) | 143.3 (+0.7) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -2.9 (-1.1) | 138.1 (+5.9) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USF -3.7 (-0.3) | 137.1 (+6.9) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -4.3 (+0.3) | 141.3 (+2.7) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 23, 2025 | UNT 64 – 57 USF |
| Feb 3, 2024 | USF 60 – 55 UNT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNT | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 25-9 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 15-3 |
| Home | 12-5 | 13-2 |
| Away | 5-7 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 86.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 76.5 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#158) | 9.1 (#69) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#118) | 0.74 (#115) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.82 (#121) | 1.25 (#99) |
| RPI | 0.515 (#138) | 0.546 (#96) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNT | USF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 43.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 16.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 38.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 32.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 66.4% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.6% | 31.4% |
Game Analysis
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