Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | UNC -213 DUKE +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +9 | 177 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -5.9 (+3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.3 (+22.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -6.2 (+2.8) | 149.6 (+27.4) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -7.5 (+1.5) | 150.1 (+26.9) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -6.9 (+2.1) | 150.0 (+27.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -6.5 (+2.5) | 150.3 (+26.7) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | DUKE 76 – 61 UNC |
| Feb 7, 2026 | UNC 71 – 68 DUKE |
| Mar 14, 2025 | DUKE 74 – 71 UNC |
| Mar 8, 2025 | DUKE 82 – 69 UNC |
| Feb 1, 2025 | DUKE 87 – 70 UNC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 15-5 |
| Home | 14-1 | 15-3 |
| Away | 8-2 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 7-5 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.9 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 18.2 (#9) | 15.9 (#14) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.96 (#6) | 2.28 (#28) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.11 (#4) | 2.97 (#20) |
| RPI | 0.637 (#11) | 0.594 (#36) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 38.7% |
| REB / G | 41.6 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 29.4% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 76.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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