Sometimes we're not prepared for adversity. "Mercy, Mercy, Mercy" - The Cannonball Adderley Quartet
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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81–43 on winners spread MAE 8.3 124 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
St. Bonaventure @ Dayton +8.2 135.1 77% 71–76 ✓
Ohio State @ Iowa +5.1 158.2 68% 77–79 ✓
Cornell @ Dartmouth -15.0 146.3 9% 56–53 ✓
Siena @ Rider +13.4 136.9 89% 50–91 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Manhattan -7.0 148.5 26% 77–71 ✓
Niagara @ Saint Peter's +7.7 136.7 76% 68–59 ✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Marist +4.6 130.5 66% 76–58 ✗
Fairfield @ Iona +3.6 145.4 63% 82–91 ✓
Princeton @ Yale -0.7 142.5 47% 64–70 ✗
Columbia @ Harvard +4.0 150.2 64% 59–62 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Brown -0.3 146.6 49% 61–70 ✗
Butler @ Creighton +9.7 153.7 81% 99–98 ✗
Toledo @ Akron +6.5 145.9 72% 70–77 ✓
San José State @ Nevada +13.9 141.9 90% 60–90 ✓
UConn @ St. John's -2.7 146.7 40% 77–64 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Miami +2.9 151.7 60% 74–82 ✓
Penn State @ Indiana +3.6 150.9 63% 85–71 ✗
Navy @ Colgate +12.1 130.4 86% 64–88 ✓
Arkansas @ LSU +7.2 153.0 74% 74–95 ✓
George Mason @ Massachusetts +4.4 147.1 65% 65–66 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ La Salle -5.7 149.6 30% 88–82 ✓
Duquesne @ Rhode Island -3.3 144.9 38% 85–71 ✓
Wichita State @ Memphis +11.3 156.6 85% 63–65 ✓
Lehigh @ Boston University +0.8 135.9 53% 71–72 ✓
South Carolina @ Georgia +1.0 137.9 54% 72–62 ✗
Ball State @ Western Michigan +1.7 147.1 56% 77–67 ✗
Robert Morris @ Detroit Mercy -7.5 149.1 25% 75–67 ✓
Cleveland State @ Oakland +7.1 152.5 74% 71–83 ✓
Grambling @ Jackson State +4.9 136.4 67% 70–62 ✗
Marquette @ Georgetown -12.4 151.4 13% 91–57 ✓
Texas @ TCU +5.3 155.9 69% 77–66 ✗
Virginia @ Clemson +5.5 126.7 69% 66–65 ✗
Kansas State @ Oklahoma State -1.6 136.2 44% 72–75 ✗
East Carolina @ Charlotte +9.1 127.0 80% 52–67 ✓
Southern Illinois @ UIC -2.7 131.8 40% 74–71 ✓
Murray State @ Northern Iowa +6.5 140.5 72% 71–43 ✗
Belmont @ Missouri State +4.9 152.2 67% 80–87 ✓
Bradley @ Illinois State -8.1 132.6 23% 73–60 ✓
Winthrop @ UNC Asheville +1.9 152.1 57% 78–82 ✓
Longwood @ Charleston Southern -6.1 135.7 29% 77–83 ✗
Monmouth @ Delaware +6.4 143.7 72% 80–84 ✓
Charleston @ William & Mary -9.9 156.4 18% 84–83 ✓
Northwestern @ Minnesota +0.8 142.4 53% 66–75 ✓
Le Moyne @ Sacred Heart +4.5 150.0 66% 81–87 ✓
Wagner @ Stonehill -4.0 125.7 36% 61–71 ✗
Miami (OH) @ Ohio +6.8 150.2 73% 69–78 ✓
VMI @ Mercer +14.6 143.8 91% 69–90 ✓
Binghamton @ Vermont +14.7 137.5 91% 49–62 ✓
Sam Houston @ Florida International -2.4 153.0 41% 61–68 ✗
Fordham @ Saint Louis +0.8 154.6 53% 67–65 ✗
California @ Arizona State +3.5 145.2 62% 81–66 ✗
Rice @ UTSA +0.1 161.6 50% 80–76 ✗
Central Connecticut @ Merrimack +6.1 130.0 71% 68–71 ✓
App State @ Georgia Southern -13.2 142.6 11% 85–84 ✓
Bryant @ Maine +0.2 138.9 51% 72–79 ✓
Utah State @ San Diego State +3.4 148.4 62% 67–81 ✓
Missouri @ Vanderbilt -2.6 138.2 41% 61–68 ✗
UL Monroe @ Arkansas State +11.4 148.9 85% 80–95 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Alabama State +8.9 137.9 79% 79–68 ✗
Houston @ Kansas -7.3 131.5 25% 65–78 ✗
Oklahoma @ UCF -1.3 135.5 45% 63–74 ✗
Hampton @ Howard +9.6 159.5 81% 63–61 ✗
Evansville @ Valparaiso +0.1 142.8 50% 63–62 ✗
Radford @ South Carolina Upstate -2.1 139.2 42% 69–78 ✗
Elon @ North Carolina A&T +1.0 156.4 53% 69–65 ✗
Rutgers @ Michigan +4.4 140.5 66% 69–59 ✗
Florida @ Texas A&M +2.4 159.3 59% 66–67 ✓
Richmond @ VCU +1.8 132.7 56% 52–63 ✓
Bucknell @ American University +4.0 138.8 64% 66–75 ✓
Air Force @ Boise State +15.3 133.0 92% 56–94 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Northern Illinois +9.7 150.2 81% 66–76 ✓
Western Carolina @ Wofford -1.9 152.3 43% 86–88 ✗
The Citadel @ East Tennessee State +4.9 134.3 67% 60–62 ✓
Old Dominion @ James Madison +20.0 156.5 97% 63–78 ✓
Troy @ Georgia State -1.4 154.3 45% 78–74 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Marshall +11.2 153.4 84% 74–91 ✓
Bellarmine @ Queens University +5.8 151.4 70% 75–85 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Utah Valley -6.6 138.6 27% 86–67 ✓
Idaho State @ Northern Arizona -0.0 136.3 50% 81–79 ✓
Morgan State @ South Carolina State +8.4 157.7 78% 72–70 ✗
Southern @ Alcorn State -2.6 151.3 41% 71–70 ✓
Delaware State @ Norfolk State +9.9 137.3 82% 64–65 ✓
Coppin State @ North Carolina Central +15.1 126.8 91% 46–77 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Northwestern State +0.0 140.2 50% 57–70 ✓
Morehead State @ Tennessee Tech -12.5 134.7 13% 67–60 ✓
Houston Christian @ Nicholls +13.7 152.6 89% 73–83 ✓
Samford @ Chattanooga +0.5 165.1 52% 78–56 ✗
Southern Indiana @ Tennessee State +10.2 139.4 82% 74–79 ✓
UT Martin @ SIU Edwardsville +2.3 148.8 58% 90–79 ✗
Little Rock @ Eastern Illinois +0.8 149.3 53% 71–47 ✗
Lamar @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +5.1 149.5 68% 71–79 ✓
North Dakota State @ North Dakota +3.3 153.4 62% 58–60 ✓
McNeese @ SE Louisiana -11.0 131.9 16% 74–77 ✗
Stetson @ Central Arkansas -7.2 152.7 25% 73–62 ✓
Western Illinois @ Southeast Missouri State -6.9 131.1 27% 76–55 ✓
Colorado @ Utah +3.9 155.6 64% 68–73 ✓
Florida A&M @ Alabama A&M +3.0 151.7 61% 61–73 ✓
Holy Cross @ Loyola Maryland +4.5 139.2 66% 70–67 ✗
Jacksonville @ Lipscomb +12.0 153.0 86% 82–84 ✓
Central Michigan @ Bowling Green +7.8 141.3 76% 77–76 ✗
New Hampshire @ UMass Lowell +9.0 150.5 79% 89–73 ✗
Incarnate Word @ New Orleans +0.6 158.7 52% 82–80 ✗
Eastern Kentucky @ Kennesaw State +2.8 167.2 60% 86–76 ✗
Stephen F. Austin @ Tarleton State +0.6 141.3 52% 64–75 ✓
UT Arlington @ Utah Tech -2.2 149.1 42% 87–66 ✓
Southern Miss @ Texas State +2.7 131.4 60% 55–60 ✓
North Florida @ Austin Peay +2.5 140.3 59% 91–95 ✓
Georgia Tech @ NC State +8.5 150.4 78% 76–82 ✓
Maryland @ Michigan State +9.3 126.9 80% 54–63 ✓
Cincinnati @ Texas Tech +3.4 143.4 62% 75–72 ✗
Auburn @ Ole Miss -6.5 149.2 28% 91–77 ✓
Tulsa @ Florida Atlantic +17.1 155.9 94% 70–102 ✓
BYU @ West Virginia -15.2 149.1 8% 86–73 ✓
Lafayette @ Army +0.7 116.3 53% 64–56 ✗
Notre Dame @ Pittsburgh +12.6 125.1 87% 60–70 ✓
South Florida @ North Texas +7.0 128.7 74% 60–55 ✗
Drake @ Indiana State +6.4 160.4 72% 67–75 ✓
Towson @ Hofstra +2.9 130.7 60% 56–59 ✓
Columbia @ Dartmouth -6.0 136.9 29% 72–56 ✓
Princeton @ Brown -11.3 144.2 15% 70–60 ✓
UC Davis @ Cal Poly -8.2 133.5 23% 59–52 ✓
Duke @ North Carolina +5.2 154.2 68% 84–93 ✓
Northeastern @ Stony Brook +5.0 147.1 67% 55–59 ✓
Texas Southern @ Prairie View A&M +2.1 135.4 58% 80–69 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.