Let fury have the hour / Anger can be power. "Clampdown" - The Clash
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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40–23 on winners spread MAE 9.5 63 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Tulane @ SMU +12.7 158.2 88% 76–80 ✓
Longwood @ High Point +6.6 149.8 73% 76–93 ✓
Stony Brook @ Hofstra +7.8 144.9 76% 71–72 ✓
Northeastern @ Towson +8.2 130.4 77% 76–83 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Charleston +2.6 158.8 59% 80–74 ✗
Hampton @ North Carolina A&T +7.7 159.4 76% 58–59 ✓
Drexel @ Monmouth -2.6 133.5 41% 62–67 ✗
Delaware @ William & Mary -6.8 146.6 27% 81–53 ✓
Campbell @ Elon +4.3 141.8 65% 69–67 ✗
Long Island University @ Fairleigh Dickinson +8.8 155.9 79% 75–82 ✓
Le Moyne @ Wagner +2.7 130.8 60% 57–80 ✓
Stonehill @ Sacred Heart +11.5 142.8 85% 72–77 ✓
Saint Francis @ Central Connecticut +15.4 135.9 92% 62–63 ✓
Robert Morris @ Oakland +10.5 153.2 83% 72–87 ✓
Milwaukee @ Purdue Fort Wayne +10.1 166.0 82% 68–65 ✗
Cleveland State @ Detroit Mercy -10.9 147.6 16% 77–65 ✓
Old Dominion @ Marshall +8.1 149.7 77% 83–76 ✗
Troy @ Georgia Southern -6.5 153.5 28% 84–63 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ James Madison +23.0 158.2 98% 67–105 ✓
App State @ Georgia State -6.5 143.7 28% 81–71 ✓
UMBC @ Bryant +15.5 164.7 92% 95–99 ✓
UAlbany @ Vermont +11.1 149.7 84% 59–81 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Florida International -10.6 145.2 17% 93–53 ✓
Bellarmine @ Kennesaw State +9.9 154.3 82% 96–95 ✗
Utah Valley @ Stephen F. Austin +7.0 138.8 74% 72–77 ✓
Morehead State @ Tennessee State -3.8 139.5 36% 68–49 ✓
South Alabama @ Texas State +4.0 140.0 64% 66–74 ✓
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ Omaha -0.7 134.2 47% 65–69 ✗
North Dakota @ South Dakota -0.4 152.2 48% 95–81 ✓
North Dakota State @ South Dakota State +10.0 157.1 82% 74–73 ✗
Denver @ Kansas City -0.8 165.0 47% 71–85 ✗
Eastern Kentucky @ Queens University -1.7 159.7 44% 76–94 ✗
Tarleton State @ Abilene Christian +0.8 141.5 53% 76–73 ✗
Weber State @ Northern Arizona -8.6 137.8 22% 72–70 ✓
Idaho State @ Northern Colorado +9.1 154.5 80% 86–91 ✓
Wisconsin @ Nebraska -3.3 148.2 38% 72–80 ✗
California @ Arizona +23.5 164.1 98% 65–91 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Tennessee Tech +2.9 136.0 60% 74–71 ✗
Little Rock @ SIU Edwardsville +5.0 148.0 67% 66–68 ✓
Western Illinois @ Lindenwood -5.7 129.1 30% 79–71 ✓
UT Martin @ Eastern Illinois +0.1 153.0 50% 76–59 ✗
Florida Gulf Coast @ Central Arkansas -2.8 145.7 40% 82–59 ✓
UT Arlington @ Southern Utah +2.7 159.8 60% 76–68 ✗
Stetson @ North Alabama +1.3 155.5 55% 72–79 ✓
Stanford @ Arizona State +2.0 148.4 57% 71–62 ✗
Youngstown State @ Wright State +0.3 167.7 51% 88–77 ✗
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Utah Tech +6.0 154.2 71% 64–81 ✓
Seattle U @ Grand Canyon +9.4 141.4 80% 88–95 ✓
Sam Houston @ Western Kentucky +6.7 154.0 73% 79–77 ✗
Liberty @ New Mexico State -6.7 138.6 27% 73–79 ✗
Jacksonville State @ UTEP +0.7 125.0 52% 71–79 ✓
Idaho @ Montana +15.5 142.8 92% 70–73 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Montana State -3.4 152.6 38% 60–70 ✗
Portland @ Pacific -3.3 152.2 38% 65–60 ✓
UC Irvine @ Cal Poly -15.5 132.2 8% 73–59 ✓
Long Beach State @ Cal State Bakersfield -1.9 147.2 43% 76–82 ✗
Cal State Northridge @ UC San Diego +11.8 149.1 86% 62–83 ✓
Hawai'i @ Cal State Fullerton +1.8 127.6 57% 76–68 ✗
Oregon @ USC -0.5 152.5 48% 78–69 ✓
Oregon State @ UCLA +6.6 128.3 73% 63–71 ✓
San Diego @ San Francisco +18.2 144.1 95% 79–95 ✓
UC Davis @ UC Santa Barbara +5.0 144.8 68% 79–69 ✗
Kent State @ Buffalo -8.7 148.8 22% 83–52 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.